U.S. crude oil exports
In addition, as of the week of June 1st, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased by 2 to 86, which has recorded growth for 8 consecutive weeks, setting a new monthly high in 205 years. The comments issued by Industrial Investment UK on June 5 pointed out that the aforementioned data is a U.S. crude oil exportsleading indicator of U.S. crude oil production. The increase in the number of oil rigs indicates that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow, putting potential pressure on oil prices.
According to a Saudi media report, the American oil company Exxon Mobil recently discovered huge oil reserves in Pakistan, in the border area of Pakistan close to Iran. According to estimates, this time the oil reserves will exceed the oil reserves of Kuwait, which is firmly among the top ten in the world. Kuwait’s proven oil reserves have now exceeded 100 billion barrels, which means that Pakistan’s newly discovered oil reserves may exceed 100 billion barrels. But according to EIA estimates by the US Energy Information Administration, Pakistan has 227 billion barrels of oil reserves, of which 900 million barrels can be exploited. Next, Pakistan has to face the difficult problem of mining.
Global inventories continue to deplete. Under the background of passive decline in supply from many countries in the Middle East and acceleration of global demand growth, global supply is tightening, and oil prices are expected to rise again in the second half of the year. European and American crude oil has a high probability of breaking through the high point in the first half of the year. The fluctuation range of Brent crude oil is expected to be 72-85 USD/barrel, the fluctuation range of WTI crude oil is expected to be 6-75 USD/barrel, and the fluctuation range of SC crude oil is 480-520 yuan/barrel. Long opportunities for the price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil.
However, it should be noted that Ineos, the operator of the North Sea Forties pipeline, said that the pipeline has returned to normal and will be put into use soon. Prior to this, due to the interruption of the supply of the Forties pipeline in the North Sea, the price of crude oil has risen significantly in recent weeks. However, with the restoration of supply, the impact of prices has gradually disappeared, which may have an impact on oil prices in a short time.
US WTI crude oil futures closed down 49 US dollars, or 89%, to 688 US dollars per barrel in the week of May 25, with a peak of 790 US dollars per barrel and a minimum of 688 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed down 04 dollars, or 60%, to 747 dollars per barrel.
Specifically, as of the week of April, long speculative crude oil positions fell by 100 million barrels from the year-end high set at the end of this year, a drop of 8%. However, sU.S. crude oil exportspeculative crude oil short positions have fallen by 25% over the same period. This expands the ratio of long and short positions in crude oil futures held by hedge funds to: Among them, the long-short ratio of oil futures has reached 20:.
The IEA pointed out that Iran’s oil production from 202 to 205 decreased by about 200,000 barrels per day during the last sanction period. But this time we can only wait for the development of the situation. The impact on Iran’s oil exports is still uncertain. The country’s current oil exports are about 2.4 million barrels per day.
Since the beginning of this year, the crazy oil production in the United States has greatly reduced the effect of OPEC’s production reduction. Although the previous monthly reports of major institutions have shown that OPEC countries are insisting on reducing production, the continuous increase in US oil production has hedged this to a certain extent. As a result, the overall crude oil pattern has not improved much. From the crude oil trend in the first quarter of this year, it can be seen that oil prices have basically maintained repeated fluctuations in the 60-65 range, which is almost the difference between the oil production in the United States and the reduction in OPEC production. war. In the second quarter, I am afraid this situation will further escalate.